Le bâtiment de la Banque centrale européenne
par Balazs Koranyi et Francesco Canepa
FRANCFORT (Reuters) -La Banque centrale européenne (BCE) devrait laisser jeudi ses taux d'intérêt inchangés, alors que l'inflation est conforme à son objectif, tout ne fermant pas la porte à un assouplissement monétaire supplémentaire du fait de perspectives délicates sur les plans commercial et politique.
Après avoir acté en juin dernier une nouvelle baisse de 25 points de base pour réduire son taux directeur à 2%, la BCE a décidé d'opérer une pause dans l'assouplissement de sa politique monétaire, citant la "bonne situation" de l'économie de la zone euro.
Reste que des baisses de taux supplémentaires ne peuvent être écartées, dans le contexte de la politique de droits de douane décidée par le président américain Donald Trump, du relèvement des dépenses publiques décidées par l'Allemagne et des secousses politiques en France, à même de peser sur la croissance et d'alimenter l'inflation.
Cela devrait inciter la présidente de la BCE, Christine Lagarde, à ne pas s'éloigner de sa position habituelle s'agissant de la trajectoiree des taux: les décisions de l'institution seront prises au fur et à mesure, en fonction des données.
Il est attendu également que Christine Lagarde ne ferme pas la porte à de nouvelles baisses de taux, en particulier en raison des projections indiquant un recul de l'inflation sous l'objectif de 2% l'an prochain.
"While officially the Governing Council sees inflation risks as broadly balanced over the medium term, most members probably still regard downside risks as somewhat more prominent," UniCredit analysts said in a note.
"The ECB will probably leave the door open for a further rate reduction if downside risks were to intensify."
In any case, the debate is at the margins and focuses on just a single rate cut, indicating that the ECB is done with the bulk of changes to monetary policy and rates are likely to stay around this level for an extended period.
The ECB will announce its decision at 1215 GMT, followed by Lagarde's 1245 GMT news conference.
RISKS
The key debate will be around how policymakers see risks.
Hawkish Governing Council members, who are opposed to further easing, say the euro zone economy has been unexpectedly resilient to trade tensions and that growth is well supported by buoyant private consumption.
They point to rebounding industrial production and a surge in German government spending to argue that growth will remain on a moderately upward path.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump's 15% tariffs on European Union imports are higher than predicted, firms are showing adaptability and the certainty of having agreed a deal offsets some of the negatives.
"We think the ECB's easing cycle has ended," UBS economist Reinhard Cluse said. "We think the ECB will not cut rates further in light of the sizeable fiscal stimulus targeting defence and infrastructure, which is likely to be increasingly visible from early 2026."
But policy doves say that tariffs have yet to fully work their way through the economy and could dampen an already low growth rate, reversing the rise in consumption.
This could then weigh on prices next year, just when inflation is seen dipping below target, raising the risk that firms will change their pricing and wage-setting, thus entrenching anaemic price growth, much like before the pandemic.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's looming rate cuts are meanwhile likely to help the euro firm against the dollar, putting downward pressure on prices.
"What we have seen since June, to us, will reinforce disinflationary forces," Bank of America said. "An economy with a negative output gap, below-trend growth, and an inflation undershoot that is about to start and will likely become persistent, calls for some stimulus."
A fresh bout of political chaos in Paris, which has pushed French bond yields sharply higher, is another headache for the euro zone's central bank.
It has tools to intervene, but only for an "unwarranted and disorderly" rise in borrowing costs, which economists say is clearly not the case now, given France's high debt and feeble economic growth.
(Rédigé par Balazs Koranyi; version française Jean Terzian)
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